We are currently witnessing something that happens once every hundred years. Just a hundred years ago, a flu swept around the world plowed with World War I, which took almost 50 million lives. A wave of disease spread across the earth’s globe in 12 months. Great dramas, however, did not end with the end of the epidemic because then came the crisis that changed the world forever and at the same time was the cause of World War II.
Very democratic virus.
We do not know coronavirus well. Viruses are very specific at all, because sometimes they behave like living organisms – they can multiply, but basically viruses are not alive – it’s just a piece of genetic material in the lipid envelope. Such a virus is very democratic and creative. How to fight something so vicious and dead? Many will say – statistics. Purely theoretical considerations were made by Sir Patric Vallance – according to him 60-80% of the population should be infected to acquire herd immunity.
How to manage in a crisis?
The same statistics can bring different solutions. In Great Britain, children were supposed to go to school until March 20 (despite the growing number of cases) so as not to infect their grandparents. In Poland, however, children stopped going to school on March 12 so as not to infect grandparents.
Today all rulers are wondering how to manage such a crisis.
The Polish model means that everyone will lose – the rulers, the budget, employers, employees, parents and childless. The British model means sacrificing one at the expense of others. Postponing decisions means that many people will die and the economy may simply not be able to bear the burden of spending on hospitals and blocking the tourism, HoReCa and transport industries. It is better not to mention the losses after the unrest.
Measure your strength.
Everything Britain could ignore was ignored. A country struggling with Brexit, undergoing many difficulties, postpones all decisions, but at the same time is preparing a limit – 20,000 people who have died. Poland has overtaken the West (which the Union cannot forgive us) by closing its borders and introducing restrictions on the issue of people gathering. Germany closes schools, pubs and cultural facilities almost a week after us. But you can understand it – it is the fourth economy in the world that has huge foreign reserves. He can handle capital and good organization. Italy is in the top ten in terms of the economy, but no specific decisions.
Stumble or serious fall?
It is difficult to predict what awaits us in the near future. Perhaps the epidemiological situation is a small fall that will cause six-month chaos, but the situation will normalize. Yes, maybe if we can handle the virus in 2-3 months with sensible internal and fiscal policy. However, if the downtime lasts longer than 3 months, we may face a serious crisis.
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Resources and opportunities.
It is a bit like managing a company in state management. There is always the problem of making decisions and bearing the consequences. Sometimes we are irritated by the lack of independence of employees and the lack of making difficult decisions for fear of consequences. However, these universal fears can be seen regardless of the size of the organization and the position held.